A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
